Five trends shaping modern business services centers in Poland

In 2026 some service centers will close or cut headcount, while new ones – smaller, mostly European and more specialized – will emerge. A major shift driven by artificial intelligence lies ahead, says a new report from XYZ.

1. Service centers and jobs: closures and new openings In 2024–25, several companies announced headcount reductions in their service centers. These included Intel, Credit Suisse, Octopus Energy, HSBC, Fujitsu Technology Solutions, Shell, Pepsi, and Aptiv. NatWest Group announced a complete exit from Poland.
During this period, new centers were opened by companies including Klarna, Mercedes, Scania, TRUMPF Huettinger, Stena, Astellas Pharma Capability, Solventum, Virtusa, Genetec, SK Hynix, Tanium, Sterling Outsourcing, and SaarGummi Group.
“In January and February we will collect data for the next report, and only then will we have the most up-to-date picture of the market. When we analyze the trends, however, we do not see a decline in the number of newly opened centers. The most likely scenario is that the pace seen in 2024 will be maintained,” says Dariusz Kubacki, managing director of KMD in Poland.
Pro Progressio nevertheless forecasts that 2025 will be the first year in which overall employment in the BSS sector declines, albeit at just 1%.
One can also expect market consolidation and acquisitions in the CX (customer experience) and financial services segments. If the war in Ukraine does not end, the inflow of new investment will remain slow.
2. What counts as a “large” center Just a few years ago, companies announced projects that ultimately aimed to employ 1,000 people or more. The largest centers operating in Poland today employ several thousand staff each. Capgemini has more than 11,000 employees across several cities; UBS employs over 8,000. Sii, Nokia, Citigroup, EPAM Systems, Comarch, Atos, Nordea, and State Street each employ more than 6,000 people.
“Today we are seeing many smaller, highly specialized centers being launched, with target headcounts of fewer than 100 employees. During site visits, investors say they want to open a center employing, for example, 70 specialists with PhDs in a specific scientific field. In their view, that is a large project. And it is – but its size is defined by something entirely different than it was a dozen or so years ago, when corporations were announcing thousands of new jobs,” says Dariusz Kubacki.
He notes that giants are appearing less and less frequently.
“These are no longer companies from the global TOP 500, but rather from the TOP 2000 – often less recognizable, more niche, highly specialized brands. Many of them come from Europe and are not global corporations. These European firms often operate nowhere outside their home country or region, such as Scandinavia, the DACH area, or the UK and Ireland. Poland is their first location beyond those markets,” says the ABSL representative.
Nearshoring is also highlighted by Wiktor Doktór, who likewise expects an increase in investment from Germany and Scandinavia.
“Geopolitics and cybersecurity also matter. Countries that are able to secure these areas can expect an increase in FDI from the BSS sector. We firmly believe that Poland is such a location,” says the president of Pro Progressio.
Location itself is crucial.
“The KMD center that I manage currently employs around 600 people. When the company decided to open an office in Poland ten years ago, proximity to headquarters was key: a one-hour flight. The location of the Warsaw office near a train station seemed less attractive compared with offices closer to Okęcie Airport. Our second office, in Gdańsk, is located right next to the airport terminal – you can walk there. For the management board, that is an ideal location. This is why new investments tend to land in large, well-connected cities. That may pose a challenge for smaller hubs we would also like to develop, such as Bydgoszcz, Toruń, or Lublin,” says Mr. Kubacki.
3. The rise of specialized service centers Specialization is increasingly shaping the sector.
“I participated in discussions with a German investment fund whose name I cannot disclose. The fund has a portfolio of a dozen fintechs across Europe. It decided to create a company that provides business services – that is, a center that will serve the other companies. It will help optimize their operations both in terms of costs and organization,” says Dariusz Kubacki.
Among the most active sectors, he highlights pharmaceuticals and financial services.
“For the past three years, we have observed a trend toward specialization in IT. Regardless of whether the investment comes from an IT company or another sector – such as pharmaceuticals or finance – the IT component is often dominant. In 2024, investments in IT accounted for 42.6% of total investments, while R&D projects made up 26.2%. This means that nearly 70% of all investments were concentrated in these two advanced sectors. That’s a significant share,” notes the manager.
4. The new workforce: AI natives It is in these sectors that a breakthrough is expected.
“Today, over 90% of employees in the sector are so-called digital natives – people well-versed in the digital world. But soon, a new type of worker will enter the market: AI natives. These are individuals who already use artificial intelligence daily in their learning and work. For them, generative AI will be as fundamental a tool as Microsoft Office is for the older generation,” says Dariusz Kubacki.
He predicts a shift in the sector’s employment pyramid. Currently, the base is formed by younger, less experienced staff such as recent graduates. In the short term, AI may replace these junior employees. But once the sector adapts to workers who can navigate AI freely, the pyramid will return to its traditional shape.
“This is natural, because business has an inherent need for cost optimization. Today, AI is taking over jobs that were created for juniors 5–10 years ago. But once tools and concepts are developed to transform current processes, AI-native employees will be more valuable. They will be better at using and advancing these tools than those who are creating the concepts today. That’s when new positions for juniors will reappear,” explains Mr. Kubacki.
According to the ABSL report Business Services Sector in Poland 2025, there has already been a significant increase in the share of more experienced workers from older age groups. In the first quarter of 2025, people aged 35 and older accounted for 46% of sector employment, with specialists dominating the workforce at 54.7%. Over the past three years, employees in Poland’s BSS sector have transitioned from transactional and back-office roles to positions requiring advanced knowledge in mid-office functions.
5. Increasingly advanced services For years, ABSL has observed a shift in the services delivered from Poland: knowledge-based services - so-called KIBS (knowledge-intensive business services) – are on the rise.
“These now account for 58.6% of all processes, while mid-office services such as analytics and cybersecurity have exceeded 54%. That’s a significant share, and the proportion of knowledge-intensive services will continue to grow. Services that we currently classify as advanced will soon no longer qualify as such. Some will be supported by tools and will no longer require deep expertise. I believe that reaching a level of 60–70% KIBS will be optimal,” says Dariusz Kubacki.
Poland is now among the 20 largest exporters of advanced services globally. Its position in this group grew the most between 2016 and 2023, increasing by 64%. Between 2021 and 2023, the gross value added (GVA) of business services in Poland rose by 46%, from USD 17.8 billion to USD 25.9 billion. This growth outpaced employment, which rose by 22%, signaling that the sector has become more productive, knowledge-intensive, and high-margin.
“The value added per job should grow faster than the number of jobs, so that GVA growth exceeds cost growth. This requires education, access to talent, and the stimulation of investment. It’s worth noting where countries that drastically reformed their education systems, significantly reducing STEM foundations, ended up. It turns out that Polish education – which we often criticize as outdated – teaches many useful skills. Without these so-called hard skills, our sector would not exist. That said, they must be complemented by soft skills, such as effective teamwork and communication,” observes Mr. Kubacki.